Beyond Overcompetition: A Data-Driven Framework to Diagnose and Project Involution in China's Manufacturing Sector

This study develops an integrated analytical framework to assess and predict "involution-style" competition among Chinese enterprises, combining CRITIC-Entropy weighting, TOPSIS evaluation, and Prophet time-series forecasting. By systematically analyzing inter-indicator conflicts, innovation metrics, and market dynamics, we identify high-weight factors that mitigate involution and structural drivers that exacerbate it. Sectoral analysis reveals divergent patterns, with traditional industries trapped in moderate involution while light-asset models enable escape pathways. Prophet projections forecast intensifying involution through 2028 due to global trade tensions and domestic consumption weakness. The findings highlight the urgency of multidimensional policy interventions to break destructive competition cycles during China's economic transition.