The impact of large-scale agricultural operations on the grain production resilience: a quasi-natural experiment based on land transfer policy

Under the dual challenges of intensifying global food security crises and pressing demands for sustainable agricultural development, investigating the mechanisms through which large-scale agricultural operations affect the grain production resilience carries significant strategic importance. Using a quasi-natural experiment based on land transfer policy, this study assesses these mechanisms. The findings indicate that large-scale agricultural operations significantly enhances grain production resilience. This positive effect is mediated by increased income levels among rural residents and greater participation in farmers’ professional cooperatives. However, labor outflow and underdeveloped rural financial systems constrain the beneficial impact of large-scale agricultural operations on grain production resilience. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis reveals regional variations in these effects. Compared to Chinese southern regions, northern regions exhibit a stronger influence of large-scale agricultural operations on grain production resilience. Similarly, while main grain-producing areas experience less pronounced effects, grain-selling regions and those with a balance between production and consumption are more significantly affected by large-scale agricultural operations. These findings contribute to the theoretical foundation for advancing land transfer policy reforms and fostering the development of farmers’ professional cooperatives. Additionally, they offer policy insights for strengthening grain production resilience and ensuring the stability of grain supply.