Forecasting Mean Percentile Scores in Junior High School Subjects Using ARIMA Models

Accurate prediction of student performance is essential for improving learning pass and has the ability to shape academic policies. Mean Percentile Scores (MPS) is the primary measure being used by the Department of Education (DepED) in the Philippines to compare the performance of students in different subjects. The AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is applied in this study to predict MPS of junior high school students in Natan National High School in Zamboanga Sibugay for the years 2025 to 2029. The ARIMA model, which is a time series forecasting method, was used to predict trends for different subjects, such as English, Math, Science, Filipino, TLE, MAPEH, ArPan, and ESP. The results show that most subjects are steadily getting better. The most noticeable growth is in science and math, but there is also more variation. On the other hand, subjects like Filipino and ESP are more likely to show steady progress with less doubt. The study recommends creating new prospectuses, providing additional support for subjects with wider variability, and regularly updating forecasts to help students improve, particularly in TLE and MAPEH. These insights are important for education program planners to make informed decisions and improve strategies for future groups.