Prediction of the behavior of alkali‐activated concrete under mechanical loading using second‐order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract The primary goal of this study is to develop and characterize the mechanical properties of ambient‐cured alkali‐activated concrete (AAC). The compressive and flexural strength values are assessed for standard laboratory specimens using numerical models developed in ABAQUS and validated through experimental data. Using Monte Carlo simulations and second‐order reliability methods, these numerical models are used to generate data to determine the probabilities of failure of the AAC specimens under compression, splitting tension, and flexure. The limit state functions for AAC are developed for each of the three types of loading. Similar limit state functions are adopted for conventional Portland cement (PC) concrete specimens from the available literature. The probabilities of failure for these specimens are then determined under the aforementioned loading conditions. It is noticed that the results from Monte Carlo simulations are identical to those obtained from second‐order reliability methods. The outcomes are further validated using analytical calculations. It is observed that AAC specimens exhibit similar failure trends to PC concrete failure. However, the probabilities of failure for PC concrete are at least 45% higher than those of AAC under each loading type. This shows the potential for practical usage of AAC as a viable alternative to PC concrete.