Research on the Impact Factors of E-Commerce Live Streaming Marketing under the Behavior of Forwarding—Based on Opinion Dynamics Method

在当今电子商务的快速发展中，电商直播带货作为一种新兴的互动方式，已经成为产品营销的重要平台。本文基于观点动力学方法，研究了转发行为下的电商直播营销影响因素。通过构建“直播间–转发”HK模型，分析了直播间用户活跃度和原始粉丝数对电商直播营销效果的影响。研究发现，直播间用户活跃度越高，信息传播越快，粉丝增长数越多，但对观众对主播的认可程度影响有限；原始粉丝数增加能显著增强直播营销效果，但当超过一定比例后，效果减弱。本研究为电商直播营销提供了新的理论支持和策略指导，丰富了观点动力学在电商领域的应用。In the rapid development of e-commerce, live-streaming e-commerce has emerged as an important platform for product marketing. This paper investigates the impact factors of e-commerce live-streaming marketing under the behavior of forwarding based on opinion dynamics. By constructing the “live room-retweeting” HK model, it analyzes the influence of live room user activity level and initial follower count on the marketing effect of e-commerce live-streaming. The results show that the higher the live room user activity level, the faster the information spreads and the more the follower increase. However, it has limited impact on the audience’s recognition of the host. The increase in initial follower count can significantly enhance the marketing effect of live-streaming, but the effect weakens when it exceeds a certain proportion. This study provides new theoretical support and strategic guidance for e-commerce live-streaming marketing and enriches the application of opinion dynamics in the field of e-commerce.