Does the Belt and Road Initiative Affect the Institutional Quality of Participating Countries?

ABSTRACT Expanding the theory of foreign influence on domestic institutions from the perspective of developing countries, this study investigates the institutional effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It applies Instrumental Variable regression technique with panel data covering 180 countries from 2005 to 2021 to examining the impact of the BRI on the institutional quality of the Belt and Road countries (BRCs). Contrary to widespread western narratives, the results show that the BRI has an overall positive yet weakly significant effect on the institutional quality of the BRCs. Heterogeneity analysis further detects a more pronounced effect on countries that signed the BRI cooperation agreement than countries along the Belt and Road region. Compared with the positive and significant institutional effect found among the higher income and higher institutional quality countries, the BRI does not seem to generate any notable institutional effect on the lower income and lower institutional quality economies.