Geo-Historical Analysis of Earthquakes in Palestine: Spatial Distribution and Risk Exploration to Enhance Contribution to Decision-Making

This study examines the historical evolution of earthquakes in Palestine from 760 BCE to 2023 CE. The aim is to comprehend and provide insights for decision-makers regarding the seismic nature of the region. The study traces the movement of tectonic plates across various geological eras, analyzing the resulting changes in the geology of Palestine and their role in shaping its current morphology. Using a descriptive, historical, and analytical approach, the study relies on relevant reports and studies. The seismic movements, including medium, strong, and violent earthquakes, were tracked over an extended period. The study calculated the periodic average for each type of earthquake and aimed to develop possible scenarios for the region's seismic future. The findings suggest that the Dead Sea Basin and northern Palestine are in close proximity to the periodic average for violent earthquakes. The study indicates that the return periods of seismic activity in Palestine increase with the seismic intensity. Earthquakes with a magnitude exceeding 6 on the Richter scale required a return period estimated at 39 years. The study recommends the collaborative development of institutions, early awareness of potential risks, and the creation of a national plan to mitigate the consequences of such earthquakes when they occur.