An Analysis of the Urban Green Space Index in Ecuadorian Cities Through Mathematical Modeling: A Territorial Analysis

The Urban Green Space Index (UGSI) is an indicator that measures the quantity, quality, accessibility, and distribution of green spaces in urban environments. This study focused on analyzing the UGSI in Ecuadorian cities through a multiple linear regression model, analyzing the UGSI from both territorial and public management perspectives. Ecuador was selected as a case study due to the limited availability of research on urban green spaces in the country, despite its high ecological diversity and increasing urbanization. The model was used to explore relationships among various factors influencing urban green spaces. Government variables and key factors, such as budget allocations, were analyzed. The model revealed an inverse relationship between urban population size and per capita green space availability. In cities with 50,000 inhabitants, the average is 60 m2 per person, which decreases significantly to just 5 m2 per person in cities with 300,000 residents. This trend highlights the pressure of urbanization on green spaces and emphasizes the need for evidence-based urban planning to ensure equitable access and to improve quality of life. However, challenges such as the lack of updated data and opportunities for improvement in territorial planning were also identified.