Analyzing the October 16, 2024 MW 5.9 Kale (Malatya) earthquake in relation to the February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence and local tectonic dynamics

Abstract The 6 February 2023 Mw 7.7–7.6 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence has significantly impacted the East Anatolian Fault zone, including the city of Malatya and its immediate surroundings. In addition to the aftershocks of February 2023, the Mw 5.9 Kale earthquake that occurred on October 16, 2024, further underscores the ongoing seismic activity in the region. This study analyzes the distribution of b -values derived from a comprehensive dataset comprising 14,549 earthquakes and the Coulomb stress variations associated with the aftershocks of the February 2023 sequence and the Kale earthquake. The primary objective of this analysis is to enhance the understanding of the tectonic setting that contributed to the occurrence of the Kale earthquake. The findings indicate that the low b -values and stress transfer through the Pütürge segment toward the unnamed fault near Kale are significant contributing factors to the occurrence of the Kale earthquake. Additionally, positive stress variations from Doğanşehir to Malatya’s city center suggest a potential fault oriented toward the city center that may increase the current earthquake hazard. Furthermore, the distribution of seismic events around Malatya suggests a possible barrier supported by previous magnetic data analysis between Malatya and Kale. Lastly, the observed stress variations for the Kale earthquake indicate the likelihood of upcoming seismic events in both the northeast and southwest directions of the Kale.