Combining Statistical Evidence When Evidence Is Measured by Relative Belief

The problem of combining statistical evidence concerning an unknown, contained in each of the <i>k</i> Bayesian inference bases, is discussed. This can be considered as being related to the problem of pooling <i>k</i> priors to determine a consensus prior, but the focus here is instead on combining a measure of statistical evidence to obtain a consensus measure of statistical evidence. The linear opinion pool is seen to have the most appropriate properties for this role. In particular, linear pooling preserves a consensus with respect to the evidence, and other rules do not. While linear pooling does not preserve prior independence, it is shown that it still behaves appropriately with respect to the expression of statistical evidence in such a context. For the more general problem of combining statistical evidence, where the priors as well as the sampling models may differ, Jeffrey conditionalization plays a key role.

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Publication Details

Journal
Entropy
Published
2025-06-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/e27060654
Primary Topic
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Combining Statistical Evidence When Evidence Is Measured by Relative Belief

Michael Evans
Entropy
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
article

Combining Statistical Evidence When Evidence Is Measured by Relative Belief

Michael Evans
article en

Abstract

The problem of combining statistical evidence concerning an unknown, contained in each of the <i>k</i> Bayesian inference bases, is discussed. This can be considered as being related to the problem of pooling <i>k</i> priors to determine a consensus prior, but the focus here is instead on combining a measure of statistical evidence to obtain a consensus measure of statistical evidence. The linear opinion pool is seen to have the most appropriate properties for this role. In particular, linear pooling preserves a consensus with respect to the evidence, and other rules do not. While linear pooling does not preserve prior independence, it is shown that it still behaves appropriately with respect to the expression of statistical evidence in such a context. For the more general problem of combining statistical evidence, where the priors as well as the sampling models may differ, Jeffrey conditionalization plays a key role.

EntropyVol. 27(6)
University of Toronto (CA)
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Openalex Percentile: Top 93%
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
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Combining Statistical Evidence When Evidence Is Measured by Relative Belief — Michael Evans · Entropy (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS