Evolution and Mechanism of Population and Construction Land Decoupling in China: A Case Study of Shandong Province

With the accelerated urbanization in China, the irrational utilization of land resources has triggered a series of ecological challenges. In this context, exploring the decoupling relationship between population and construction land is crucial for achieving land sustainable development. This paper applied Tapio and Geodetector models to Shandong Province, analyzing population–land decoupling evolution and mechanism. The results show the following: (1) Significant spatiotemporal differences exist, with a total of eight decoupling types identified; the main decoupling types of Shandong include strong negative decoupling, expansive negative decoupling, weak decoupling, and strong decoupling. (2) A strong negative decoupling type characterized by “population decline and land expansion” was predominant, though coordination trends are emerging. (3) Weak decoupling townships were primarily influenced by resource factors and transportation; strong decoupling townships were mainly affected by economic activities and transportation; strong negative decoupling townships were closely related to resource factors and economic activities. (4) Multi-factor interactions have a considerable impact on the formation of the population–land decoupling relationship, with natural constraints and economic transformation drivers jointly contributing to diverse decoupling patterns.