Drought Amplifies the Suppressive Effect of Afforestation on Net Primary Productivity in Semi-Arid Ecosystems: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin

As a critical ecologicalbarrier in the semi-arid to semi-humid transition zone of northern China, the interaction between afforestation and climatic stressors in the Yellow River Basin constitutes a pivotal scientific challenge for regional sustainable development. However, the synthesis effects of afforestation and climate on primary productivity require further investigation. Integrating multi-source remote sensing data (2000–2020), meteorological observations with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and an improved CASA model, this study systematically investigates spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) responses to extreme drought events while quantifying vegetation coverage’s regulatory effects on ecosystem drought sensitivity. Among drought events identified using a three-dimensional clustering algorithm, high-intensity droughts caused an average NPP loss of 23.2 gC·m−2 across the basin. Notably, artificial irrigation practices in the Hetao irrigation district significantly mitigated NPP reduction to −9.03 gC·m−2. Large-scale afforestation projects increased the NDVI at a rate of 3.45 × 10−4 month−1, with a contribution rate of 78%, but soil moisture competition from high-density vegetation reduced carbon-sink benefits. However, mixed forest structural optimization in the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program core area achieved local carbon-sink gains, demonstrating that vegetation configuration alleviates water competition pressure. Drought amplified the suppressive effect of afforestation through stomatal conductance-photosynthesis coupling mechanisms, causing additional NPP losses of 7.45–31.00 gC·m−2, yet the April–July 2008 event exhibited reversed suppression effects due to immature artificial communities during the 2000–2004 baseline period. Our work elucidates nonlinear vegetation-climate interactions affecting carbon sequestration in semi-arid ecosystems, providing critical insights for optimizing ecological restoration strategies and climate-adaptive management in the Yellow River Basin.