Satellite-Based Lithium Capacity Monitoring in Salt Lakes: The Atacama Case

Global energy transition has driven exponential growth in lithium demand, fueled by advancements in new energy vehicles and battery technologies. Despite abundant lithium resources, volatile market fluctuations underscore the critical need for the accurate monitoring of production capacity. Brine-type lithium resources, accounting for approximately 65% of the global reserves, are concentrated in the “lithium triangle” region of South America (Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia). This region typically employs solar evaporation ponds to extract lithium from brine, where lithium production directly correlates with the pond area, enabling remote sensing-based capacity monitoring. This study focuses on Chile’s Atacama Salt Lake, utilizing long-term Landsat and Sentinel satellite data (1985–2019) to extract evaporation pond areas through visual interpretation and support vector machine (SVM) classification. We further investigated the relationship between salt pond area and lithium production capacity by establishing a linear conversion formula. The results demonstrated a strong correlation (R2 = 0.91), with over 97% of the data points falling within the 95% prediction band, validating the effectiveness of the method. This study proposes a semi-automated monitoring framework for lithium production capacity in salt lake brine systems, offering novel insights for sustainable lithium resource management and supporting the stable development of energy transition.