Fingerprints of AMOC Decline Are Sensitive to External and Mechanistic Forcing

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in past, present, and future climate, and there is substantial interest in using sea surface temperature (SST) as a fingerprint of past AMOC strength. Using a hierarchy of climate model ensembles, we find that the decline in AMOC, and its SST fingerprint within the North Atlantic warming hole region, are sensitive to external forcing level and wind driven ocean forcing. Once external forcing reaches a level at which sea ice melt increases the Labrador Sea vertical salinity gradient, localized cooling and resulting expansion of the sea ice edge decrease vertical mechanical stirring. Under greenhouse gas only forcing, this mechanism plays a large role and under SSP3.70 forcing, it plays a relatively minor role due to larger buoyancy forcing. This implies that an AMOC fingerprint developed from one simulation or external forcing level cannot be applied to other scenarios.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2025-06-19
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116307
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
2.21

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Fingerprints of AMOC Decline Are Sensitive to External and Mechanistic Forcing

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article

Fingerprints of AMOC Decline Are Sensitive to External and Mechanistic Forcing

Sarah M. Larson, Katinka Bellomo, Chengfei He, Melissa Gervais, Kay McMonigal, Mark A. Cane, Jeremy M. Klavans, Susanna Corti
article en
2 citations

Abstract

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in past, present, and future climate, and there is substantial interest in using sea surface temperature (SST) as a fingerprint of past AMOC strength. Using a hierarchy of climate model ensembles, we find that the decline in AMOC, and its SST fingerprint within the North Atlantic warming hole region, are sensitive to external forcing level and wind driven ocean forcing. Once external forcing reaches a level at which sea ice melt increases the Labrador Sea vertical salinity gradient, localized cooling and resulting expansion of the sea ice edge decrease vertical mechanical stirring. Under greenhouse gas only forcing, this mechanism plays a large role and under SSP3.70 forcing, it plays a relatively minor role due to larger buoyancy forcing. This implies that an AMOC fingerprint developed from one simulation or external forcing level cannot be applied to other scenarios.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 52(12)
Northeastern University (US), Pennsylvania State University (US), North Carolina State University (US), University of Padua (IT), University of Alaska Fairbanks (US), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US), University of Colorado Boulder (US), Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (IT), National Research Council (IT), Columbia University (US)
National Science Foundation, Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 13%
Climate variability and models
2.21
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