Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Grassland Cover in Xinjiang, China, from 2000 to 2023

A systematic understanding of the spatial and temporal changes of grassland fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in Xinjiang and its drivers provide scientific reference for regional ecological restoration. In this study, we used MODIS EVI data from 2000 to 2023 and the Pixel binary model to estimate the grassland FVC value of Xinjiang; analyze its spatiotemporal dynamics with combination of trend and persistence detection methods; and explore its driving factors with ridge regression and residual analysis. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the grassland FVC in Xinjiang experienced an upward trend on the whole, yet a significant decrease after 2020. Spatially, the distribution characteristics are high in the northwest and low in the southeast, decreasing from mountains to basins. (2) Precipitation and soil moisture affected FVC positively, with contributions of 18.6% and 38.3%, respectively, while air temperature and solar radiation affected it negatively, with contributions of 22.9% and 20.2%, respectively. (3) The change in the grassland FVC in Xinjiang resulted from a combination of climatic factors and human activity, whose relative contribution rates were 57.2% and 42.8%, respectively; furthermore, the areas with positive effects on the FVC were smaller than those with negative effects. (4) While the FVCs of most grassland types in Xinjiang were dominantly influenced by both climatic factors and human activity, climatic conditions were the dominant drivers of the FVCs of temperate typical grasslands and temperate desert grasslands, whereas human activities had more influence on the FVC of temperate meadow grasslands. This study provides a scientific basis and guidance for optimizing the ecological barrier function and regulating vegetation coverage in arid areas by analyzing the spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland coverage in Xinjiang and quantifying the impact of different environmental factors on it.