Examining the Application Possibilities and Economic Issues of an Alternative Drive Chain in Hungary: Scenario Analysis

Background: A societal shift in attitudes is going to be required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the field of transportation, which is crucial to the level of mitigation that can be achieved. There is increasing pressure on policymakers to address climate change and, in turn, to promote sustainable transport. The sector’s decarbonization is essential to meet climate change targets, and alternative powertrains, particularly battery electric trucks, can play a key role. However, international research shows that the solutions and strategic plan proposals are primarily developed in isolation according to the country’s specific conditions. Methods: This study aims to compare battery electric trucks and conventional internal combustion engine trucks in Hungary, focusing on the total cost of ownership over ten years. Results: This study examines the cost parameters for operating electric and conventional trucks, based on current economic conditions. In addition, alternative studies have been carried out to see what additional savings can be expected by changing the parameters under consideration. This research examines four scenarios that model changes in state subsidies, tolls, and excise duties alongside current cost parameters. Conclusions: The results suggest that public policy interventions play a key role in developing sustainable transport systems, particularly to preserve the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises.