Techno-Economic Assessment of Alternative-Fuel Bus Technologies Under Real Driving Conditions in a Developing Country Context

The long-standing need for a modern public transportation system in Lebanon, a developing country of the Middle East with an almost exclusive dependence on costly and polluting passenger cars, has become more pressing in recent years due to the worsening economic crisis and the onset of hyperinflation. This study investigates the potential reductions in energy use, emissions, and costs from the possible introduction of natural gas, hybrid, and battery-electric buses compared to traditional diesel buses in local real driving conditions. Four operating conditions were considered including severe congestion, peak, off-peak, and bus rapid transit (BRT) operation. Battery-electric buses are found to be the best performers in any traffic operation, conditional on having clean energy supply at the power plant and significant subsidy of bus purchase cost. Natural gas buses do not provide significant greenhouse gas emission savings compared to diesel buses but offer substantial reductions in the emission of all major pollutants harmful to human health. Results also show that accounting for additional energy consumption from the use of climate-control auxiliaries in hot and cold weather can significantly impact the performance of all bus technologies by up to 44.7% for electric buses on average. Performance of all considered bus technologies improves considerably in free-flowing traffic conditions, making BRT operation the most beneficial. A vehicle mix of diesel, natural gas, and hybrid bus technologies is found most feasible for the case of Lebanon and similar developing countries lacking necessary infrastructure for a near-term transition to battery-electric technology.