Análisis de transiciones sistemáticas de la cobertura y uso de la tierra en Morona Santiago, durante el periodo 2000-2018

INTRODUCTION. The analysis of systematic transitions using specific metrics allows the identification of causal and random patterns of change between land cover and land use categories in a study area. OBJECTIVE. To analyze changes and identify the most prevalent systematic transitions in land cover and land use in the province of Morona Santiago during the period 2000-2018. METHOD. This paper employs cross-tabulation matrix analysis that, by calculating metrics such as gains, losses, exchanges, net changes and total changes, allows the identification of systematic transitions in two periods: 1) 2000-2008 and 2) 2008-2018. RESULTS. The predominant systematic transitions for both periods of analysis correspond to the loss of “Forest” to be replaced by “Agricultural Land”, and the gain of “Agricultural Land” to replace “Forest”. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS. These transitions are driven not by random exchanges but by a clear causal relationship, as shown by the classic “fishbone” pattern of deforestation, a well-documented phenomenon in the Ecuadorian Amazon, marked by shrinking forest cover and expanding agricultural land.