CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: TIME SERIES STUDY FOR REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN

This study investigates the causal nexus of imports, exports, and economic growth in Uzbekistan using time series evidence and advanced econometric techniques. The empirical analysis begins with unit root testing by employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, followed by the Johansen cointegration test to establish long-run equilibrium relationships between the variables. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is employed to test short- and long-run causality. The results reveal unidirectional causality from imports to exports, changes in import activity significantly influence export performance. The study further finds bidirectional (bicausal) relations between imports and economic growth and between exports and economic growth. The implications of these findings are that both trade components do play a significant role in the economic development of Uzbekistan. The results emphasize the importance of balanced trade policy that benefits both growth in imports and promotion of exports in order to achieve long-term economic growth.