Reassessing immediate coal phase-out: Dual imperatives of capacity control and renewables expansion in China’s net-zero strategy
<h2>Abstract</h2> Immediate cessation of investments in new coal-fired power plants is widely regarded as a crucial measure for China to achieve net-zero emission. However, there exists a lack of systematic evaluations regarding the stringent removal of coal power from China's energy system, raising potential concerns around balancing emission reductions and sustainable transformation. In this study, a comprehensive analysis coupling an integrated assessment model with an hourly power-system optimization model reveals that implementing stringent policies to limit coal-power expansion yields immediate emission-reduction benefit. However, premature and singular capacity control of coal power may hinder the electrification of Chinese society, adversely impacting the adequacy of the power system beyond 2050. These findings underscore the importance of implementing supporting measures when implementing coal-power control policies, including the crucial deployment of renewable energy at a pace significantly exceeding the current rate to achieve complementarity with coal-power control policies.
Authors
- Xi Lu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5063-3776)
- Eric P. Xing (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-9158-4201)
- Yang Ou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2879-6349)
- Kebin He (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6006-9323)
- Ziwen Ruan
- Benjamin McLellan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4802-3864)
- Dan Tong (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7942-6631)
- Jing‐Li Fan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2371-5845)
- Yan Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7272-5455)
- Xian Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4079-9470)
- Michael B. McElroy (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1354-167X)
- Hao Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5279-3645)
- Yin Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3101-3627)
- Jiaxing Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8545-5095)
- Jianxiao Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9871-5263)
- Wenlong Zhou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-7972-4460)
- Anna M. MacLennan
Institutions
- Tongji University (CN)
- Planetary Science Institute (US)
- Harvard University (US)
- Peking University (CN)
- Kyoto University (JP)
- China University of Mining and Technology (CN)
- Harvard University Press (US)
- Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (CN)
- Ministry of Science and Technology (LA)
- Tsinghua University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nexus
- Published
- 2025-06-19
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ynexs.2025.100081
- Citations
- 2
- Primary Topic
- Coal and Coke Industries Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 5.40
Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China