Modeling Migration and Demographic Processes in Scientific Cities using the Methods of System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling in Anylogic

This paper presents an approach to the modelling and forecasting of migration and demographic trends in science cities, using system dynamics and agent-based methods. An original simulation model was developed in the AnyLogic software, which considers the "gravity effect" on the redistribution of migration flows between Moscow as the centre and nearby science city such as Korolev, Obninsk, Troitsk, Dubna, Protvino, and Pushchino. Using the developed simulation model, we predict the dynamics of population (including those formed by migration) in these science cities and in Moscow under two scenarios. The first is a baseline scenario, assuming that current imbalances between Moscow and science cities will persist. The second is a more advanced scenario, in which economic growth in these scientific hubs is accelerated. As a result, it has been shown that science cities may potentially be more attractive for people to live in than a large neighboring metropolitan area, if there is an increased availability of socially important infrastructure (e.g., housing, kindergartens, schools, hospitals), as well as high-tech jobs with wages that exceed the inflation rate. This can ensure an efficient redistribution of population from the mega-city to the scientific cities, with a significant improvement in the demographic situation.