Exploring sustainable development scenarios using collective intelligence and system dynamics modelling: The lithium exploitation case

Lithium-ion batteries play a pivotal role in renewable energy, powering a multitude of rechargeable devices. The transition to renewable sources amplifies the demand for lithium, providing advantages for nations with reserves but also posing potential risks to soil and water resources. Previous research has predominantly concentrated on distinct dimensions like social acceptance, water sustainability, and economic development. Limited attention has been given to an integrated analysis encompassing both the holistic and individual aspects simultaneously. We applied collective intelligence experiments and the system dynamics methodology to uncover the dynamic complexity of this issue and to reveal the relationship between variables and their interactions as they unfold over time. Our research suggests that, although there is some room for sustainable utilization, the risks for stakeholders exhibit clear asymmetry. While economic gains appear stable across various scenarios, the local community's susceptibility becomes notably fragile due to excessive water exploitation.