The impact of armed conflict on educational outcomes in Colombia: A multilevel analysis using open data from periods of high and low conflict intensity

Colombia’s armed conflict has profoundly affected the lives and education of its youth. This study investigates the impact of armed conflict on educational outcomes by using a three-level hierarchical linear model (HLM) to analyze students’ academic performance at the municipal school and individual levels. Data were gathered for the years 2002, marked by the highest conflict intensity, and 2017, the lowest conflict intensity following the peace agreement. A municipal-level conflict intensity index was created by integrating data on homicides, forced disappearances, kidnappings, displacement, and the recruitment of minors, resulting in a more accurate assessment of violence in each municipality. The enrollment of conflict victims at the school level captures the direct impact of violence on students, serving as an additional lens through which to assess the conflict’s influence on educational outcomes. The measure of academic performance was the Saber 11 results, Colombia’s national large-scale assessment program, which evaluates all graduating high school students in core competencies, including reading, quantitative reasoning, science, English as a Foreign Language (EFL), and civics and citizenship. The findings reveal a significant impact of violence on educational outcomes in both years. Additionally, while the enrollment of conflict-affected students negatively predicted academic performance in 2002, this effect was not significant in 2017, despite a higher proportion of victimized students enrolled in schools. The results also align with previous research indicating that female students, those from low socio-economic backgrounds, and those attending public or rural schools consistently perform at lower levels. In contrast, male students, those from wealthier families, private schools, and urban areas tend to achieve higher educational outcomes. This research enhances the understanding of how armed conflict influences education and provides evidence to guide targeted interventions, particularly in post-conflict regions. The findings aim to inform strategies for conflict prevention and resolution within Colombia’s educational system, supporting equitable and resilient learning environments.