Automated geospatial workflow for spatiotemporal assessment of urban expansion influence on deforestation in Northeast Florida

Rapid urbanization, driven by population growth in the United States over the last centuries, has led to significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC), transforming natural landscapes into impervious surfaces. This study explores the spatiotemporal changes in urban areas and vegetation coverage in the Northeast district of Florida. Vegetation was the most affected land cover class, declining from 51.39% in 2000 to 45.82% in 2022, representing a 5.57% loss over 22 years. Conversely, urban areas increased by 12.14%, from 9.90% in 2000 to 22.04% in 2022. The most significant land cover transition occurred within the vegetation class, with 10,839 km 2 remaining unchanged. However, 2,479 km 2 of vegetation was converted to urban areas during the study period. At the county level, Duval County experienced the highest urban growth rate at 32.50%, while Madison County had the highest deforestation rate at 24.74%. Nassau County had the lowest urban growth and deforestation rates at -3.47 and -4.96, respectively. A moderate positive correlation (R=0.30) was found between urban growth and deforestation rates, suggesting that other factors besides urban expansion contribute to vegetation loss. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to balance urban development with environmental conservation to mitigate the potential impacts of LULC on natural disasters, such as increased land surface temperature and droughts. The study provides novel insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization and deforestation in Northeast Florida, emphasizing the importance of sustainable land use planning and management strategies. The automated workflow developed using Model Builder and geospatial techniques demonstrates the potential for efficient monitoring and assessment of LULC patterns, which can inform evidence-based decision-making and support the development of resilient urban ecosystems. • Vegetation dropped from 51.39% to 45.82%, and urban areas rose by 12.14% (2000–2022). • 2,479 km 2 of vegetation was converted to urban land during the study period. • Duval County had 32.50% urban growth; Madison had 24.74% deforestation. • Urban growth and deforestation showed a moderate correlation (R = 0.30). • Automated geospatial workflow supports sustainable urban planning.