Dimensions of State Capacity and Modes of Democratic Breakdown

Which dimensions of state capacity are most effective in safeguarding democracies from distinct modes of breakdown? This article theorizes and examines how two fundamental dimensions of state capacity—coercive and administrative—affect democratic stability differently depending on whether threats arise from incumbents or nonincumbents. Based on a global analysis covering democratic breakdowns from 1789 to 2020, we find that administrative capacity, characterized by meritocratic recruitment, impartial administration, and predictable enforcement, significantly reduces the risk of incumbent-led democratic breakdowns. In contrast, coercive capacity indicators, such as territorial control and military resources, do not robustly relate to either incumbent-led or nonincumbent-led breakdowns. Our study highlights the critical role of high-quality administrative institutions for democratic stability.