Tackling transformational change in climate policy appraisal: experiences and perceptions of United Kingdom policy analysts

Progress in implementing climate policy in the United Kingdom consistent with the country's target to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 has been modest. This is despite the well-established physical risks of climate change, the UK's broadly accepted intention to act decisively, and the international recognition of the need for transformational climate action. Previous research suggests that the practical and theoretical limitations of existing decision-making frameworks and the accompanying economic tools may hinder transforming objectives into action. We explore how practitioners perceive the current assessment of transformational climate policies in the UK, drawing on interviews with government analysts from multiple departments. We identify various challenges including a status-quo bias and inadequate treatment of innovation and uncertainty that the recommended decision-making framework creates when applied to transformational climate policy proposals. Practitioners believed that new decision-making frameworks are needed to improve the assessment of transformational policies. These frameworks should support evidence-based decision-making in areas of deep uncertainty to enable government to avoid pessimism and status-quo biases. Frameworks should also find the balance between a detailed representation of transformational change and communicability to decision-makers to be effective. More economic modelling tools that view the economy as a dynamic system are also needed to provide decision-makers with more robust evidence on transformational change.