Impact of future climate change on the photovoltaic power generation potential over South Korea

This study examines the impact of future global warming on the photovoltaic (PV) power generation potential (PVpot) over South Korea based on ensemble projections from downscaled high-resolution, bias-corrected future climate change scenario data. Global warming projections for 2081–2100 indicate a decrease in PVpot over South Korea in spring and winter compared with PVpot in the present climate, with more pronounced decreases occurring in the northern and western regions. The PVpot decrease under the high-carbon emission scenario is more pronounced and significant than that under the low-carbon emission scenario. In spring, the PVpot reduction is driven primarily by the projected increase in air temperature due to global warming, whereas in winter, it results from the increase in air temperature and decrease in downwelling solar radiation at the surface. The reduction in downwelling solar radiation in winter is linked to weakened northwesterly winds from the Eurasian continent compared to the case in the present climate. These findings are expected to support the optimization of regional PV power generation systems to address future climate change.