Factors Influencing Indonesia's Food Inflation: An ARDL Approach, 2020–2024

This study aims to analyze the impact of natural disasters, food production, and the exchange rate on food inflation in Indonesia. Employing a quantitative approach, the research utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The Bound Test results indicate a cointegrating relationship among the variables, suggesting the existence of a long-run relationship. Short-run estimations reveal that food inflation is significantly influenced by its values from the preceding three periods, as well as natural disasters at the first lag. Conversely, food production and the exchange rate do not have a significant short-term effect. In the long term, only natural disasters significantly affect food inflation