Low emission development prospective of the Republic of Azerbaijan and regional environmental security challenges

The paper contains some scientific results of the recent monograph of the author “Low emission development outlook and its role in the environmental security system of the Republic of Azerbaijan”, where low greenhouse gas emission (GHG) development scenarios for the Republic of Azerbaijan in the XXI century were analyzed in terms of environmental security and transition to the green economy. According to the paragraph 19 of the Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, each country – Party of the agreement should strive to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). In this regard, the monograph “Low emission development outlook and its role in the environmental security system of the Republic of Azerbaijan” studies the economic and environmental security aspects of the long-term low greenhouse gas emission development scenarios, including the scenario of reaching net-zero emission level in second half of the century. These decarbonization scenarios contain some climate change mitigation measures, as well as assumptions with different GHG reduction potentials in all sectors, which were calculated with a special LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) modelling technique. Moreover, there were analyzed the role and importance of low emission development pathway, including green growth transition in the environmental security of the country and the whole South Caucasus region. In order to provide comparative analysis of all these GHG emissions development options there will be presented three GHG emission development scenarios, namely – Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario, Realistic Low Emission Development Scenario (RLEDS) and Best Low Emission Development Scenario (BLEDS). Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario is a projection of the level of GHG emissions that would result if future development trends follow those of the past and no change in climate change mitigation policies and measures take place. The scenario assumes that there are no climate change strategies, policies and measures being or to be implemented since 2021, no relevant green transition changes in technology, economics etc. Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario is used as a benchmark for another scenarios and separate mitigation policies and measures for qualitative assessment of their GHG reduction potential and effects. İn the paper, in order to evaluate the GHG emissions reduction of mitigation actions or their overall total effects within the Realistic Low Emission Development Scenario (RLEDS) or within the Best Low Emission Development Scenario (BLEDS) there are provided a comparative analysis of each mitigation action vis-à-vis the BAU Scenario on the base of LEAP calculations. Another scenario is Realistic Low Emission Development Scenario (RLEDS) that is a projection of the level of GHG emissions in some separate sector or totally for all sectors (depending on assumptions in place), taking into account all mitigation policies and measures (sectoral or total) that have been formally (i.e. legally) adopted (with finance allocation) and still having mitigation effect or being implemented by 2021, as well as those which have not yet been formally adopted (without finance allocation) but have been agreed to be implemented in order to comply with the country reduction commitments. The third scenario is the Best Low Emission Development Scenario (BLEDS) which is a projection of the level of GHG emissions in some separate sector or totally in all sectors that takes into consideration all mitigation policies and measures of the RLEDS by 2021, that is added with additional assumptions in order to reach net-zero emission level by some year in the future. In fact, the scenario is based on the necessary conditions and assumptions of reaching net-zero emission level in the future. This scenario in some sectors or totally for all sectors (depending on assumptions in place) should be considered the most needed and important pathway for each country in light of the Paris Agreement and Conference of Parties (CMA) decisions. According the modelling calculations in LEAP software, BLEDS enables the pathway when Azerbaijan could successfully reduce its emissions even up to 86 % level by 2050 compared to the 1990 emissions, that is much more under the 2050s goal of 40 % reduction of emissions. “40 % reduction” goal by 2050 has been included to the NDC-2 (National Determined Contributions) of the country. Moreover, BLEDS provides the sufficient reduction of GHGs when of net zero emissions level, i.e. the carbon neutrality of the country could be reached by 2081 under the relevant assumptions described in the paper.