CLIOMETRICS – SOME (CRITICAL) THEORETICAL ISSUES

The paper addresses two themes regarding the (relatively) new method of macroeconomic analysis called cliometrics (together with its „pair”, cliodynamics): theoretical issues, and epistemological issues. From a theoretical perspective, four issues are examined: the theoretical vocation of cliometrics is examined, the relationship between cliometrics and Kuhnian cognitive paradigm is assessed, the rapport between cliometrics and scientific research, and the correlation between cliometrics and economic theory. Regarding the epistemological perspectives, the concept of truth (including truth testability) is exposed and analysed, in correlation with the truth testing through cliometric modelling. Finally, the theoretical examination, and the epistemological evaluation are put together in order to discuss the issue of prediction/predictability based on cliometric modelling, from two perspectives: Bayesian probabilities, and propensive probabilities.