Aircraft Weight Estimation Using Surveillance Data Based on Statistical Modeling of Climb-Thrust

Accurate trajectory prediction is essential for a highly efficient air traffic system, and aircraft weight estimation by ground systems is one of its key technologies. Since aircraft weight includes payload and fuel, it is regarded by airlines as commercially sensitive and is not available to air traffic control (ATC) facilities. Attempts have therefore been made to estimate aircraft weight using data available to ATC, including meteorological and surveillance data. Such techniques often target the climb phase because reasonable assumptions may be made about thrust during this phase. However, in real-world operations, even aircraft of the same type flying the same route show a wide variety of flight tracks and climb profiles due to traffic and weather conditions. In this study, the uncertainties in climb phase weight estimation are classified into two types, and a two-step method is applied to deal with each type of uncertainty: estimation of the steady climb segment and simultaneous estimation of aircraft weight and thrust setting. The accuracy of the proposed method was evaluated using flight data collected during actual operations, and the superiority of the proposed method in terms of accuracy over previous studies was suggested under certain conditions.