From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications

Abstract. A cascade of drought impacts refers to a series of interconnected events that trigger a chain reaction of effects, extending beyond water scarcity to influence agricultural production, socioeconomic conditions, and the environment. This paper explores the role of society in mitigating drought impacts, particularly through policy responses. Conducting a case study in Ceará State, Northeast Brazil, we used a globally rare dataset of continuous drought monitoring encompassing 3.5 years (February 2019 to October 2022), complemented by interviews with smallholder farmers and agricultural extension technicians. Additionally, we analyzed policy documents related to public policies implemented at the local level. Using a classification of drought impacts as our analytical framework, our findings indicate that social, environmental, and economic impacts of drought are less frequently reported, suggesting that development policies are mitigating cascading effects on livelihoods. Most reported impacts are associated with hydrological drought, revealing the unintended consequences of investments aimed at increasing water supply. We emphasize the significant contribution of public policies in mitigating the cascading effects of drought, which go beyond increasing water availability and focus on strengthening the local economy.