PROOFS OF SEASONALITY OF BULGARIA’S EXPORT OF CONSUMER GOODS, RAW MATERIALS AND PROCESSED MATERIALS OVER THE PERIOD 2020–2023

A country’s balance of payments determines the degree of openness of its economy. In our case, it is the ratio of the debit and credit entries in the current account to GDP. Data regarding Bulgaria indicate that during the period of its full membership in the EU, the average annual ratio of its balance of trade to GDP exceeds 110%. This categorizes the country as an open-type economy. Simultaneously, an economy which is heavily reliant on both exports and imports is considered extremely susceptible to external shocks and strongly dependent on foreign markets. Accordingly, the study focuses on the export of two leading groups of goods within the current account of the balance of payments: the group of consumer goods and the group of raw and processed materials. The research aims to examine the dynamics of export flows using the method of seasonal projection. The working hypothesis is that due to the effect of various crises (such as the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, spiking energy prices, etc.) and the economic cycle in the agricultural sector, the dynamics of exports of consumer goods and raw and processed materials has seasonal characteristics. The objective is to analyse Bulgaria's exports for the period 2020–2023 on a quarterly basis and to define the trend component, the seasonal component, and the random component with a forecast for 2024.