Detecting and Predicting the Multiscale Geographical and Endogenous Relationship in Regional Economic–Ecological Imbalances

Addressing the economic–ecological imbalance within urban agglomeration integration and sustainable development is crucial, particularly in the context of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of sustainable cities and communities. This study examines this imbalance using a unique ecosystem services (ESs) balance index that evaluates “supply” and “demand” tradeoffs. It emphasizes localization, mobility, and cooperation as regionalization strategies, utilizing multisource datasets. To address gaps from endogeneity and heterogeneity, the study regresses these strategies on ESs balance values, incorporating landscape patterns as endogenous variables across 214 YRDCA counties or districts in 2020, using a multilevel geographically weighted instrumental variable regression model. Employing the patch-generating land use simulation method, three scenarios were explored: non-intervened development (ND), mobility priority (MD), and localization priority (LP). These scenarios were assessed for their 2025 mitigation effects and health benefits to optimize balanced development strategies. Key findings include (1) a severe ecological–economic imbalance in supply and demand patterns; (2) localization boosts economic development, mobility enhances ecological development, and cooperation promotes both; and (3) LP and MP strategies, compared to ND, show promising potential to reduce the imbalance and generate health benefits, although the extent of the impact may depend on the implementation scale and regional context. By promoting inclusive urbanization and participatory and integrated planning, and enhancing urban resilience through targeted risk-reduction strategies, this study provides insights into fostering balanced development among cities.