Analysis of Existing Methods of Forming Models of Passenger Travel Needs

The aim of the article is to conduct an analytical review of existing methods of forming models of demand for passenger transportation by public transport. The results of the review of modern practices of creating passenger correspondence matrices are aimed at improving the existing methods of forming transport demand models and developing new ones, the use of which will make it possible to obtain an accurate and reliable assessment of the results of forecasting the development of urban transport systems. The main focus of the article is on the analysis of existing approaches to the formation of urban passenger correspondence matrices as the key input information on which the overall assessment of the results of the implementation of measures to improve passenger route networks and the development of urban areas in general is based, as well as the most problematic stage of the transport demand modeling process. The two fundamentally different approaches to modeling transport demand for passenger movement - conducting field surveys and using synthetic (a priori) models for calculating correspondences - have inherent disadvantages that significantly limit their use, but their combination (for example, a selective tabular survey of passenger flows and the gravity method) helps to obtain a variant of the correspondence matrix that characterizes one of the possible states of transport demand in the relevant time period. But, ultimately, the models of passenger travel needs obtained in this way do not guarantee the accuracy of the results of calculating the correspondence matrices. The advantages of the interval approach to modeling passenger correspondence matrices make it a reliable tool for assessing alternative directions for the development of transport and route systems of cities, taking into account the creation of a set of variants of correspondence matrices that would meet the existing restrictions in the calculation of matrix elements. To form different variants of passenger correspondence matrices, it is advisable to use simulation models of correspondence generation.