A Comparative Evaluation of Machine Learning Methods for Predicting Student Outcomes in Coding Courses

Artificial intelligence (AI) has found applications across diverse sectors in recent years, significantly enhancing operational efficiencies and user experiences. Educational data mining (EDM) has emerged as a pivotal AI application to transform educational environments by optimizing learning processes and identifying at-risk students. This study leverages EDM within a Moroccan university (Hassan First, University Settat, Morocco) context to augment educational quality and improve learning. We introduce a novel “Hybrid approach” that synthesizes students’ historical academic records and their in-class behavioral data, provided by instructors, to predict student performance in initial coding courses. Utilizing a range of machine learning (ML) algorithms, our research applies multi-classification, data augmentation, and binary classification techniques to evaluate student outcomes effectively. The key performance metrics, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score, are calculated to assess the efficacy of classification. Our results highlight the long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm’s robustness achieving the highest accuracy of 94% and an F1-score of 0.87 along with a support vector machine (SVM), indicating high efficacy in predicting student success at the onset of learning coding. Furthermore, the study proposes a comprehensive framework that can be integrated into learning management systems (LMSs) to accommodate generational shifts in student populations, evolving university pedagogies, and varied teaching methodologies. This framework aims to support educational institutions in adapting to changing educational dynamics while ensuring high-quality, tailored learning experiences for students.