The dynamics of crop diversity and seed use in the context of recurrent climate shocks and poverty: Seasonal panel data evidence from rural Uganda

• Off-farm seed sourcing, crop diversity, and seed saving respond to short-, medium-, and long-term rainfall shocks. • Drought shocks enhance off-farm seed sourcing, diversification, and seed saving. • Long-term rainfall variability increase improved seed purchase and crop diversification, but reduce seed-saving. • Last season’s rainfall abundance increased improved seed purchases and diversification but reduced local seed purchases and seed saving. • Wealthier farmers are more likely to respond positively to shocks in ways that enhance seed security. Climate change and variability impact smallholders’ use of seeds from different sources. Empirical studies of smallholders’ use of crop diversity and seed provide essential evidence for the continued adaptation of seed policies to changing climatic conditions. We address two key questions: (i) How do smallholders in Uganda use off-farm seed sourcing and crop diversity in response to climate shocks and variability? and (ii) How do differences in socioeconomic status influence smallholders’ crop diversity and seed use? We analyze household seasonal panel data from the Uganda National Panel Survey, complemented by high-resolution climate data. Smallholder farmers maintain high crop diversity. About half of the farmers purchase part of the seeds used, and more farmers buy local than improved varieties. Fewer than 5% of farmers buy certified seed, and the purchase of Quality Declared Seed is at about the same level. Exposure to less-than-normal rainfall over the previous five years is associated with higher crop diversification, more seed purchases, and more farm-saving of seeds. Farmers experiencing long-term rainfall variability increase seed purchasing, particularly of improved varieties, and reduce seed saving. These findings suggest that crop diversity, variety type, and seed source are integral to farmers’ strategies for coping with and adapting to climate shocks. Wealthier farmers are more likely to diversify and increase off-farm seed purchases in response to drought shocks, highlighting unequal access to these adaptation strategies. Realizing the adaptation potential in crop diversity and seeds will require policy coherence and concomitant implementation of social protection programs with seed system interventions.