Multi-Model Simulations of a Mediterranean Extreme Event: The Impact of Mineral Dust on the VAIA Storm

This study investigates the impact of desert dust on precipitation patterns using multi-model simulations. Dust-based processes of formation/removal of ice nuclei (IN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are investigated by using both the online access model WRF-CHIMERE and the online integrated model WRF-Chem. Comparisons of model predictions with rainfall measurements (GRISO: Spatial Interpolation Generator from Rainfall Observations) over the Italian peninsula show the models’ ability to reproduce heavy orographic precipitation in alpine regions. To quantify the impact of the mineral dust transport concomitant to the atmospheric river (AR) on cloud formation, a sensitivity study is performed by using the WRF-CHIMERE model (i) by setting dust concentrations to zero and (ii) by modifying the settings of the Thompson Aerosol-Aware microphysics scheme. Statistical comparisons revealed that WRF-CHIMERE outperformed WRF-Chem. It achieved a correlation coefficient of up to 0.77, mean bias (MB) between +3.56 and +5.01 mm/day, and lower RMSE and MAE values (~32 mm and ~22 mm, respectively). Conversely, WRF-Chem displayed a substantial underestimation, with an MB of −25.22 mm/day and higher RMSE and MAE values. Our findings show that, despite general agreement in spatial precipitation patterns, both models significantly underestimated the peak daily rainfall in pre-alpine regions (e.g., 216 mm observed at Malga Valine vs. 130–140 mm simulated, corresponding to a 35–40% underestimation). Although important instantaneous changes in precipitation and temperature were modeled at a local scale, no significant total changes in precipitation or air temperature averaged over the entire domain were observed. These results underline the complexity of aerosol–cloud interactions and the need for improved parameterizations in coupled meteorological models.