Short- and Long-Term Assessments of ESG Risk in Mexican Mortgage Institutions: Combining Expert Surveys, Radar Plot Visualization, and Cluster Analysis

The recent debate on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors has focused primarily on financial decision making and risk management from the perspectives of developed economies. However, in most developing countries, ESG risk models for mortgage lenders are very limited. In most of these countries, ESG-rating providers employ widely varying methodologies and disclosure policies, often resulting in divergent assessments of the same organization. This research develops a pilot statistical-analysis, dual-horizon ESG risk model specific to the Mexican mortgage industry, which provides a better understanding of how ESG risk could evolve over time across financial, operational, regulatory, and reputational dimensions in Mexico. This dual-horizon ESG framework considers a two-year short-term risk assessment and a ten-year long-term risk assessment. This research integrates expert opinions with a scoring system that improves on traditional methods. Dependability and internal consistency are tested using the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Cronbach’s alpha. Radar chart visualization and cluster analysis are used to visualize the empirical results. The empirical findings show that environmental risk has strong temporal effects, and the perceived severity is 20% higher over the longer time horizon. Furthermore, social risk exhibits high variability, identifying it as a critical risk for financial stability and regulatory compliance. Cluster analysis identifies systematic patterns in expert opinions that determine two groups, making the qualitative findings derived from radar plots more robust. Group 0 (75% of experts) has an institutional view about ESG risks. Group 1 (25% of experts) aligns with an affiliation to large financial institutions. Finally, this research identifies three key sustainability challenges for the mortgage sector in Mexico: exposure to climate-induced stress, fragmented regulatory frameworks, and social inequality.