Spatiotemporal Variability Analysis of Provincial Power Grid Carbon Emission Factor: A Case Study of Dry and Flood Seasons

With the intensification of global climate change, the evaluation of carbon emission factors has become a critical metric for assessing regional low-carbon development and optimizing energy structures. This study focused on the Sichuan provincial power grid to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of carbon emission factors at the provincial, municipal, and substation levels during flood and dry seasons. The influencing factors and variation patterns were analyzed. Based on the calculation method of nodal carbon emission factors and the integration of power grid topology, a stepwise aggregation method for regional carbon emission factors was proposed. Through empirical data analysis, the study revealed significant differences in the carbon emission factors of the power system between flood and dry seasons. Particularly in substations dominated by thermal power units, carbon emission intensity significantly increased during the dry season. The findings provided theoretical support and practical guidance for constructing low-carbon power systems and optimizing regional emission reduction strategies.