What is the Acceptable Price for Small Modular Reactor within the Context of Chinese New Power System?

Small Modular Reactors (SMR) are gaining new momentum as a key technology for achieving global carbon neutrality targets due to their inherent advantages, including enhanced safety, lower financing costs, shorter pre-project and construction timelines, and broad applicability across diverse energy sectors. At present, over 70 Small Modular Reactor (SMR) designs are in development globally. In China, the first commercial SMR, Linglong One, located in Hainan, is scheduled for completion by 2026. Furthermore, High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors are being increasingly deployed for industrial heat applications. However, the high cost of SMR construction poses a significant challenge to its commercial viability. This study quantitatively evaluates the impact of cost reductions in SMR on their deployment within China’s evolving power system, utilizing the Dynamic Optimal Power Expansion Model for China. The findings indicate that accelerated cost reductions would significantly expedite SMR deployment. When SMR costs reach parity with or fall below those of large-scale reactors (LRs), nuclear energy could account for over 22% of total installed capacity and 59% of total electricity generation in China. Furthermore, the stable power supply from SMR would mitigate the curtailment of variable renewable energy sources and enhance regional electricity reliability.