Production and supply dynamics (2017–2023) associated with artisanal and small-scale mining of critical raw materials in Africa

Recent studies and policy developments have raised the question to what extent artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) activities might contribute to the global supply of critical raw materials (CRM) for the energy transition and other strategic industrial sectors. This study presents the results of an Africa-wide screening of CRM production in the ASM sector, including an overview of selected mineral economic production parameters and production estimates for copper, cobalt, lithium, tantalum and tungsten. Based on these data, commodity price and ASM production development in the 2017–2023 period often show broadly aligned patterns characterized by strong volatility. In recent years, the African ASM contribution to global mine supply has been in the range of 1–12 % for copper, cobalt, lithium and tungsten, and 52–74 % in the case of tantalum. While ASM is thus already making a meaningful contribution to global supply, we present a number of potentially limiting geological, economic and legal factors that impact on the sector's long-term CRM production capacities and the ability by Western mid- and downstream market participants to directly access this supply. These factors include finite ASM-accessible CRM resources and the lack of information concerning the size of these resources, associated financing constraints, competing commodity price developments as well as corporate reputational considerations. Factoring in these parameters may be beneficial for calibrating forward-looking strategic CRM supply scenarios and for conceptualizing potential support or policy interventions in association with the ASM sector to stimulate investment and supply chain engagement. • Production of critical raw materials in artisanal and small-scale mining in Africa. • Quantitative evaluation of copper, cobalt, lithium, tantalum, tungsten supply. • Metal price and artisanal and small-scale mine production relationships. • Discussion of limiting factors for future artisanal mine supply growth.