Optimizing the lead time of operational flexibility trading from distributed industrial energy systems in future energy and flexibility markets

To address the challenges posed by increasing shares of variable renewable power generation in the electric grid, flexibility procurement platforms are being actively developed. These platforms enable prosumers to offer flexible power for use in mitigating predicted grid congestion. However, the optimal design of such flexibility markets remains unclear and requires thorough analysis. A critical parameter is the lead time between the acceptance of offered flexible power and its delivery, directly influencing flexibility availability and cost. Despite its importance, the impact of lead time on flexibility provision cost has not been evaluated in the literature. In this study, we analyze this cost effect of varying lead times on flexibility provision by simulating a 48-hour moving horizon model predictive control for multiple distributed energy systems on a market platform, delivering flexibility under different lead time scenarios. Additionally, the deliveries are analyzed under varying demand durations, electricity tariffs, daytimes, and seasons to evaluate their response to diverse influencing factors. The findings are presented using a newly developed flexibility heatmap, illustrating lead time dependent flexibility deliveries and their associated costs. The results indicate that with a lead time of 3 h, the cost of providing flexibility using current combined heat and power systems is minimized, achieving cost reductions of up to 77%. Transitioning to advanced heat pumps and battery storage technologies increases the available flexibility ninefold. However, such systems require a lead time of 16 h to deliver flexibility at minimized costs, highlighting the growing importance of lead time in flexibility provision. • Investigation of 3 types of common energy system designs based on a real company. • 48-h moving horizon model predictive control simulation. • Comprehensive analysis of different energy flexibility signal lead times. • New flexibility heatmap to visualize signal lead time dependent costs. • Increase in optimal signal lead time due to future energy system designs.