For the Times They Are A‐Changin': Towards a ‘Homeland Economics’ Paradigm of the European Union?

Abstract There is an ongoing academic debate on whether geopolitical aspirations are reshaping the paradigm of the EU's neoliberal industrial and trade policy. The scrutiny has intensified with China's new economic power, the Trump and Biden administrations, Covid‐19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, the theory of paradigm changes expects that the institutionalisation of a new paradigm requires an evolution, based on a series of mechanisms slowly eroding the legitimacy of the existing paradigm. This article investigates this process by formulating four causal chains, representing different scenarios for a new strategic paradigm in the EU's industrial and trade policy. Through the method of process tracing, it finds that the foundations for a new strategic paradigm were made under the Juncker Commission. Here, France formulated a new policy agenda, which was successfully pushed into EU economic policy‐making. Since then, the EU has moved towards a ‘Homeland Economics’ paradigm, though with important reservations.