Priority index design and evaluation analysis of power market based on massive simulation scenarios

Under the background of new power system, the high permeability of new energy and the diversification of market players significantly aggravate the operational risk of power market. It is urgent to establish a scientific priori evaluation method to support market mechanism design and policy optimization. This paper proposes a priori evaluation method based on panoramic simulation deduction. Firstly, by integrating typical scenario modeling, extreme condition deduction and multi-agent game simulation, a panoramic operation database of power market with spatio-temporal correlation characteristics is constructed. Secondly, a multi-dimensional evaluation index library is established and an index screening mechanism based on correlation analysis is innovatively proposed to form a core evaluation index system that is strongly related to the market model. Finally, taking the provincial spot market as a case, 1000 sets of scenarios with new energy installed capacity of 0 % -50 % are simulated for verification. The research proves that it provides a quantifiable decision-making scheme for the design of power market mechanism under high uncertainty environment.