Towards sustainable transport in Visegrád countries: Decomposition of emissions drivers and policy directions

This study addresses a critical research gap in understanding the drivers of transportation emissions in Central Europe by applying the Kaya Identity and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) methods. To analyze data from 2001 to 2021, the study identifies critical factors—economic growth, energy intensity, and population changes influencing emissions trends. It provides region-specific insights for aligning with EU climate targets. Findings reveal Poland's steepest emissions increase due to its coal dependency and rapid economic growth, underscoring the need for renewable energy and public transport electrification. Hungary and the Czech Republic exhibit relatively stable emission trends, indicating moderate success in energy efficiency measures and cleaner technologies. At the same time, Slovakia demonstrates a balanced approach to emission control through adequate investment in public transportation and renewable energy. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a temporary reduction in emissions across all four countries, illustrating the potential impact of large-scale economic shifts. Policy recommendations include targeted actions such as expanding electric vehicle infrastructure, incentivizing renewable energy, and enhancing multimodal transport options. Despite the study's valuable insights, limitations include reliance on aggregated data, assumptions of linear relationships, and the pandemic's short-term disruptions. Future research should explore more detailed data on transport modes and extend the timeframe to better understand complex interactions driving emissions. This study offers actionable guidance for reducing transportation emissions to support Central Europe's climate goals.