Evaluating energy sustainability and causal impact of belt and road initiatives (BRI) in energy-deficient Asian countries

The strategic investment and international cooperation for sustainable energy supplies have grown within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Through such projects, BRI is believed to bring myriad benefits that engender trade and stimulating economic growth through investment in infrastructure. However, research that has targeted the causal impact of BRI initiatives on energy sustainability has markedly been lacking. The study aims to aid in filling this gap by analyzing the causal effect of BRI initiatives through an investigation of how BRI-related factors—FDI, economic growth, urbanization, trade openness, human capital, and infrastructure development—affect energy sustainability. The panel data of 20 Asian BRI energy-deficient countries have been taken into consideration for the time range of 2000–2022. This study carries out cross-sectional dependence tests, second-generation panel unit root and cointegration testing, panel quantile regression, and employ the Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) approach in assessing the causal impact of BRI initiatives on energy sustainability. The panel quantile regression results reveal that economic growth, urbanization, trade, human capital, and infrastructure development significantly affect energy sustainability at various quantiles. Further, the causal impact analysis highlights the varied and significant effects of BRI initiatives on energy sustainability. Countries like Afghanistan, Maldives, and Uzbekistan should continue attracting investment for energy projects, while nations such as Bangladesh and Pakistan need to stabilize energy policies to manage short-term disruptions, and countries like Cambodia, Indonesia, and Turkey must balance rapid increase in energy demand with sustainable practices.