Interrogating Nigeria’s High Crude Oil Production and Low Real Gross Domestic Product Growth: A Plenty Paradox?

This study examines the impact of crude oil production on the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Nigeria. The Bayesian time-varying coefficients VAR technique is used to account for changes in crude oil production over time. The findings indicate that the impact of crude oil production on real GDP growth varies significantly over time. Additionally, the results suggest that, in recent years, crude oil production has negatively affected real GDP growth in the agricultural, construction, manufacturing, and services sectors.