Economic costs of 11 years of ASF in Poland

African swine fever (ASF) has been present in Poland in wild boar and pig populations for more than 11 years. The main cause of the long-distance spread of ASF is human error, especially the lack of biosecurity awareness in noncommercial farms. The potential risk of ASF endemicity in Poland and the Baltic states remains a serious concern. The enormous impact of ASF can be seen in the domestic production of pigs during the successive years of the epizootic. Due to ineffective biosecurity measures implemented in backyard, family or noncommercial farms, this sector of pig production remains the most susceptible to the ASF virus (ASFV). Also, commercial producers are affected by spontaneous ASFV outbreaks, which are usually difficult to explain during epizootic investigations. The data presented show the current knowledge on the economic impact of ASF in Poland since its introduction. The aim of this study was to estimate the costs to the farming sector and the national budget during the 11 years of ASF presence in Poland. This study used both statistical and dynamic methods of data analysis. The analysis included eight direct and indirect costs generating losses in agriculture. Profits lost by the meat industry and expenses from the state budget were also estimated. The analysis shows that over those 11 years, pig producers lost PLN 10.0-11.3 billion ($ 2.5-2.8 bn), of which the state compensated in various forms less than PLN 2.0 billion ($ 0.5 bn). Each disease outbreak accounted for PLN 0.53-0.63 million ($ 0.13-0.16 mln) of direct costs to farmers. The state budget spent at least PLN 9.4 billion ($ 2.3 bn) on the fight against ASF, as well as on subsidies for farmers and interest on additional public debt, while the meat industry lost PLN 300 million ($ 75 mln). The geographic expansion of ASF makes the costs of ASF increase every year. The loss of export markets is another cost to the Polish economy, with $ 5.5 bn of pork exports not realized.