Impact of Perceptual Factors on Forecasting Errors in Analytical Centres Monitoring Terrorist Threats

Modern analytical systems aimed at identifying terrorist threats often make mistakes resulting from fundamental perceptual and decision-making mechanisms that are formed from the early stages of human development. This article focuses on the analysis of these errors, pointing out that both in the structures responsible for security and among those involved in terrorist activities, decision-making processes are determined by the same psychological and cognitive mechanisms. Paradoxically, regardless of the side of the conflict in the war on terror, erroneous situational judgments, cognitive heuristics, and limitations resulting from perceptual biases lead to inadequate responses and incorrect forecasts. The authors ask the question: what are the reasons for perceptual errors in the development of forecasts by analytical centers aimed at identifying terrorist threats? The article also presents the causes of these phenomena and their consequences for antiterrorist policy, indicating the need to introduce new methods of data analysis and strategies to reduce cognitive biases in threat identification.